Course Standards

How grading works

Mastered / Not Yet —

Each standard is binary. No partial marks, no averaging across attempts.

★ star —

You were close. Write a brief explanation of what you missed to earn a retake with different problems.

Retesting —

Up to 2 retests per standard. Your best attempt is what counts — not your first.

Introduction to Probability and Statistics

What you need to demonstrate, and how.

My Progress 0 / 33 mastered
Module 1

Descriptive Statistics

Vocabulary, graphs, and numerical summaries — the language every statistical argument is built on.

DS-1a

Classify any variable by type — including sub-type (nominal, ordinal, discrete, continuous) — and correctly identify the population, sample, parameter, and statistic in a research scenario using proper notation (μ, x̄, σ, s, p, p̂).

Mastered
Mastered when…

You correctly classify variables including tricky cases like Likert scales and postal codes. You assign the right notation symbol in a scenario you haven't seen before — and you can explain why a parameter is usually unknown while a statistic is computed from data.

DS-1b

Identify the sampling method used in a study and evaluate whether the design is likely to produce a representative sample; explain the source and likely direction of any bias.

Mastered
Mastered when…

Given a described study, you correctly name the sampling method and explain at least one specific way the design could systematically over- or under-represent part of the population — including whether that bias pushes the estimate up or down.

DS-2

Select the appropriate graph type for a given variable and research question; read frequency distributions correctly; identify misrepresentation in a graph and explain what it obscures.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You choose the right graph type for a given variable (including knowing why a bar chart, not a histogram, belongs with categorical data). You read absolute, relative, and cumulative frequencies without confusion. Given a misleading graph, you identify the specific technique used and what it makes the reader think incorrectly.

DS-3

Calculate mean, median, and mode from raw data and from frequency distributions, including grouped data.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You correctly compute all three measures from unsorted raw data (sorting first for the median) and from a frequency table using weighted calculations — without a calculator.

DS-4a

Calculate variance and standard deviation using the correct formula (n−1 denominator for sample data); calculate IQR from sorted data; identify outliers using the 1.5×IQR fence rule.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You use n−1, not n, in the sample variance formula and can explain why. You correctly compute IQR and apply both fences (Q1 − 1.5×IQR and Q3 + 1.5×IQR) to classify each value as an outlier or not.

DS-4b

Select and justify appropriate measures of center and spread for a given distribution; predict how outliers affect each measure; correctly pair mean↔SD and median↔IQR.

Mastered
Mastered when…

Given a described or displayed distribution (skewed, symmetric, with outliers), you choose and justify both the right measure of center and the right measure of spread. You correctly predict which way an outlier will pull the mean without pulling the median. You never pair mean with IQR or median with SD.

DS-5

Calculate and interpret z-scores and percentiles; apply the Empirical Rule to approximately normal distributions, explicitly verifying the normality condition before applying it; describe distribution shape using skewness direction.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You correctly compute z-scores and locate percentiles. Before using the 68–95–99.7 rule, you check whether the distribution is approximately normal — and you explain why the rule doesn't apply if it isn't. You correctly identify skewness direction from a histogram or description (the tail points in the direction of the skew, not the peak).

Module 2

Probability Foundations

The language and rules of probability — sample spaces, event operations, conditional probability, and combinatorics.

PR-1a

Calculate probabilities of simple, complementary, and compound events; apply the correct form of the addition rule — with or without the intersection term — based on whether events are mutually exclusive; construct and use Venn diagrams.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You identify whether events are mutually exclusive before choosing which addition rule to apply. You correctly compute union, intersection, and complement probabilities. Your Venn diagrams accurately represent the given scenario.

PR-1b

Distinguish mutually exclusive from independent events with justification; recognize which probability rule applies in a given scenario.

Mastered
Mastered when…

Given a pair of events, you correctly classify them as mutually exclusive, independent, both (impossible for events with positive probability), or neither — with a written explanation of why. You don't confuse "can't happen together" with "don't affect each other."

PR-2a

Compute conditional probabilities using the definition P(A|B) = P(A∩B)/P(B); use tree diagrams for multi-stage experiments; apply the general multiplication rule for dependent events.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You correctly restrict the sample space when conditioning — dividing by P(B), not P(S). You build accurate tree diagrams and read off the right joint and conditional probabilities. You apply P(A∩B) = P(B)·P(A|B) for dependent events.

PR-2b

Correctly orient the conditioning direction in context; test whether two events are independent using both definitions; recognize that P(A|B) ≠ P(B|A) in general.

Mastered
Mastered when…

Given a scenario, you identify which conditional probability is actually being asked for and don't reverse the direction. In a medical test or legal scenario, you correctly distinguish P(positive | disease) from P(disease | positive). You apply both independence tests — P(A|B) = P(A) and P(A∩B) = P(A)·P(B) — and explain what each checks.

PR-3

Apply the Fundamental Counting Principle, permutations (ₙPᵣ), and combinations (ₙCᵣ) to count outcomes; determine whether order matters in context and select the correct formula; use counting results to compute probabilities over equally-likely sample spaces.

Mastered
Mastered when…

For a problem you haven't seen before, you correctly decide whether order matters before picking a formula. You apply the right formula and use the result to calculate a probability. You don't use a permutation formula when the problem is asking about selections where order is irrelevant.

Module 3

Probability Distributions

Random variables, probability models, and named distributions — the bridge from probability rules to statistical inference.

PR-4a

Construct a valid probability mass function (PMF) for a discrete random variable; verify that all probabilities sum to 1; calculate E(X), Var(X), and σ_X.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You build a correct PMF from a described scenario and verify ΣP(X=x) = 1. You compute E(X²) and [E(X)]² separately — not as the same thing — and use them correctly in the variance formula.

PR-4b

Interpret expected value as a long-run average in context; explain why E(X²) ≠ [E(X)]² in general; distinguish the most likely outcome from the expected value.

Mastered
Mastered when…

In a real-world context (insurance, games, medical decisions), you correctly explain what E(X) represents without saying it's the "most likely" outcome. You give an example where the expected value is not a possible value of X. You explain in plain language why E(X²) and [E(X)]² are different quantities.

PR-5

Verify all four BINS conditions before applying the binomial model; calculate exact and cumulative binomial probabilities; translate "at most k," "at least k," "more than k," and "fewer than k" correctly into probability expressions; compute μ = np and σ = √(np(1−p)).

Mastered
Mastered when…

You explicitly check and justify all four BINS conditions before computing anything. You correctly translate at least two different cumulative language forms into probability expressions without confusing "exactly k" with "at least k." You compute μ and σ using the binomial formulas.

PR-6a

Find probabilities P(Z < a), P(Z > a), and P(a < Z < b) using the z-table; standardize a general normal variable X ~ N(μ, σ²) to Z before looking up any probability.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You always standardize X before using the table. You correctly compute all three region types — including using the complement for right-tail areas and subtracting two table values for middle regions. You don't add left-tail areas when finding P(a < Z < b).

PR-6b

Find the value x corresponding to a given probability (inverse normal); unstandardize correctly using x = μ + z*σ.

Mastered
Mastered when…

Given a probability (which may be a right-tail area requiring a complement step first), you correctly locate z* in the table and then convert back to the original scale using x = μ + z*σ. You don't stop at z* without unstandardizing.

Module 4

Statistical Inference

The Central Limit Theorem bridges probability to inference — the engine behind every confidence interval and hypothesis test.

INF-1a

Compute the mean and standard error of the sampling distribution of x̄; calculate probabilities for sample means using z = (x̄ − μ)/(σ/√n).

Mastered
Mastered when…

You use σ/√n (the standard error) — not σ alone — whenever you compute a probability for a sample mean. You can state the mean and SE of the sampling distribution for any given μ, σ, and n.

INF-1b

Explain what the Central Limit Theorem says about the shape of the sampling distribution of x̄ and when it applies; distinguish the distribution of individual observations from the distribution of sample means; explain the effect of increasing n on the sampling distribution.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You correctly explain that the CLT is a statement about x̄ (the distribution of sample means across many samples) — not about individual data values becoming more normal. You correctly describe how increasing n changes the spread of the sampling distribution. You state the condition under which the CLT applies.

INF-2a

Construct a z-interval for μ using x̄ ± z* · (σ/√n) or x̄ ± z* · (s/√n) when n ≥ 30; select the correct critical value for a given confidence level; determine the required sample size for a specified margin of error.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You build a correct interval for at least two different confidence levels, selecting the right z* each time. You correctly solve for n given a target margin of error, σ, and confidence level.

INF-2b

State the correct interpretation of a confidence interval; explain why "there is a 95% probability that μ is in this interval" is wrong; explain what the confidence level actually means.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You state the correct interpretation without attaching a probability to μ being in any specific interval. You explain specifically why the standard misinterpretation is wrong — μ is fixed, not random. You explain what "95% confident" means in terms of what would happen if you repeated the procedure many times.

INF-3

Construct a t-interval for μ using x̄ ± t* · (s/√n) with degrees of freedom df = n−1; look up the correct t* from the t-table; verify conditions; justify the choice of t over z when σ is unknown.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You use df = n−1 (not n) to look up t*. You explicitly state why t is required in the given scenario. You verify that the population is approximately normal (especially important for small n).

INF-4

Construct a confidence interval for a population proportion using p̂ ± z* · √(p̂(1−p̂)/n); verify both normality conditions; determine the required sample size using p* = 0.5 when no prior estimate is available.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You use p̂ (not p₀ from a null hypothesis) in the standard error formula. You explicitly check np̂ ≥ 5 and n(1−p̂) ≥ 5 before building the interval. You correctly solve for n using p* = 0.5.

INF-5a

Execute all five steps of a z-test for a population mean: state correct H₀ and Hₐ before computing anything, check conditions, compute the test statistic, find the p-value, and state the conclusion in the context of the original question.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You state both hypotheses before touching any numbers. Your Hₐ correctly reflects the research question's direction (one-tailed or two-tailed), chosen in advance. Your conclusion refers back to the original research context — not just "reject H₀."

INF-5b

Define p-value correctly as a conditional probability; interpret "fail to reject H₀" without claiming H₀ has been proven true; explain the Type I and Type II error trade-off in a real context.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You define p-value as the probability of observing data this extreme or more extreme, assuming H₀ is true — not as the probability that H₀ is true. You use "fail to reject" language correctly and explain what it does not mean. Given a scenario, you correctly identify which type of error (false positive or false negative) was made.

INF-6

Conduct a t-test for a small-sample mean using t = (x̄ − μ₀)/(s/√n) with df = n−1; conduct a z-test for a proportion using p₀ (not p̂) in the denominator; select the correct test for a given scenario and justify the choice.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You use p₀ in the proportion test standard error — not p̂ — and you can explain why (you're measuring how extreme the result is under the assumption that H₀ is true). You use df = n−1 in the t-test. Given a scenario description, you identify the correct test and state the justification.

Module 5

Regression & Association

Analyzing relationships between two variables — correlation and regression for quantitative data, chi-square for qualitative data.

REG-1a

Calculate the Pearson correlation coefficient r and the coefficient of determination r²; describe a scatter plot in terms of direction, form (linear vs. non-linear), strength, and outliers.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You correctly compute r and r². You describe scatter plots using all four characteristics. You correctly interpret r = 0 as no linear relationship — not as no relationship of any kind.

REG-1b

Interpret r and r² correctly and distinctly; explain why correlation does not imply causation; identify at least one specific confounding variable in a described correlation.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You report r² (not r) as the proportion of variance explained. You identify a concrete confounding variable mechanism — not just the phrase "correlation doesn't equal causation" — that would explain an observed association without causation.

REG-2

Calculate the least-squares regression line using b = r(sᵧ/sₓ) and a = ȳ − bx̄; interpret slope and intercept in context; calculate and interpret a residual for a specific observation.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You correctly compute b and a. Your slope interpretation includes "predicted" and "on average." You flag when the intercept interpretation is not meaningful (x = 0 outside the observed data range). You correctly calculate and interpret a residual as actual minus predicted.

REG-3a

Use the regression equation for prediction; distinguish interpolation from extrapolation and explain the risk; conduct the significance test for r using t = r√(n−2)/√(1−r²) with df = n−2; interpret a residual plot for linearity and homoscedasticity.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You identify whether a prediction is interpolation or extrapolation and explain what risk extrapolation introduces. You correctly set up and execute the significance test for r. On a residual plot, you identify a curved pattern as evidence of non-linearity and a fan shape as evidence of heteroscedasticity.

REG-3b

Distinguish statistical significance from practical significance using r²; explain what a statistically significant r does and does not establish about the model's usefulness for prediction.

Mastered
Mastered when…

Given a large-sample scenario where r = 0.15 and p < 0.001, you correctly identify this as statistically significant but practically weak, using r² = 0.0225 as the relevant measure. You explain that statistical significance tells you the relationship is real, not that it's useful.

REG-4

Calculate expected frequencies using E = (row total × column total)/grand total; compute χ² = Σ(O−E)²/E; execute the five-step chi-square test with df = (r−1)(c−1); verify that all expected frequencies are ≥ 5; interpret the result as evidence of association, not causation.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You correctly compute all expected frequencies and the χ² statistic. You check the E ≥ 5 condition explicitly. Your conclusion uses association language — not causation — and is stated in the context of the original research question.

REG-5

Select the appropriate bivariate analysis method based on variable types (two quantitative → correlation/regression; two qualitative → chi-square); execute the chosen analysis; report effect size (r² or Cramér's V) alongside the significance test result.

Mastered
Mastered when…

You correctly identify variable types and select the right method with a written justification. You report effect size alongside the p-value — not p-value alone — in your conclusion.